The Ministry of Finance reported an increase in the inflation forecast to 11% for the end of 2026 while preparing the explanatory note to the draft revised national budget. According to the data, the document states that at the end of 2026 inflation "will exceed the target range of 5–7% and is estimated at double-digit levels."

StoriesMinistry of Finance raises 2026 inflation forecast to 11%Slides: 6
  1. Ministry of Finance raises 2026 inflation forecast to 11%
  2. Inflation Forecast Rises for 2026. The Ministry of Finance revised the national budget, setting the annual inflation forecast at 11% for 2026, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 6.5%.
  3. Why the Increase? A combination of domestic and external factors is driving up consumer prices. The revised forecast suggests inflation will exceed the target range of 5–7%.
  4. Key Drivers of Price Growth: Seasonal food price fluctuations (vegetables, fruit); Revision of utility tariffs (electricity, heat, gas); Higher excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol; Increased budget spending (wage increases); Higher transport costs (tolls)
  5. Key Forecast Change. The Ministry of Finance updated its projections in the explanatory note to the draft revised national budget for 2026.
  6. The Ministry of Finance has set an annual inflation forecast of 11% in the revised national budget for 2026, significantly higher than the previously stated 6.5%. The change is driven by a range of domestic and external factors affecting consumer prices in the country.

Factors driving price growth

The rise in inflationary pressure stems from a combination of causes. These include seasonal fluctuations in food prices, particularly for vegetables and fruit, as well as a revision of utility tariffs.

  • Higher excise taxes on tobacco and alcohol products.
  • Revision of tariffs for electricity, heat and gas.
  • Increased budget spending, including a two-stage wage increase in April and September 2026, which stimulates growth in aggregate demand.
  • Higher transport costs, for example the introduction of tolls for passage through the tunnels on the Bishkek–Osh highway and through the Kok-Art tunnel.

Key changes in the forecast

11%Inflation forecast for 2026
6.5%Previously forecast inflation level

These data are presented in the explanatory note to the draft revised national budget for 2026, which refers to Cabinet of Ministers resolution No. 458 of July 3, 2026.