Forecasts
Forecasts of Kyrgyzstan's GDP growth for 2026: IMF, WEO, April 2026 — 6.1%; World Bank, MPO, October 2026 — 9.6%; ADB, ADO, September 2026 — 8.9%. Below are all releases by year, inflation, public debt, budget balance and past forecasts compared with outcomes.
Data as of October 6, 2026
IMF: GDP growth
IMF, WEO, April 2026
Source and notes
IMF, WEO, April 2026: GDP growth in 2026
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API
WB: GDP growth
World Bank, MPO, October 2026
Source and notes
World Bank, MPO, October 2026: GDP growth in 2026
Source: World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
ADB: GDP growth
ADB, ADO, September 2026
Source and notes
ADB, ADO, September 2026: GDP growth in 2026
Source: ADB, Kyrgyz Republic: Economy — Asian Development Outlook September 2026
Actual: GDP growth
Source and notes
Actual: GDP growth year to date
Source: Нацстатком КР, «Социально-экономическое положение Кыргызской Республики в январе-августе 2026 г.» (опубл. 28.09.2026)
GDP growth
Real GDP growth, % year on year. Forecasts are from each organisation's latest release.
Real GDP growth: actual and forecasts
% year on year · 2010–2031
- Actual: National Statistics Committee
- IMF, WEO, April 2026
- World Bank, MPO, October 2026
- ADB, ADO, September 2026
6 more forecast releases are only in the table below the chart: the chart shows at most three organisations, and government forecasts and values that need verification are not drawn as lines.
The incomplete current year is not part of the actual line — it is shown as a separate tile above.
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| Who and when | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF, WEO, April 2026International estimate | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% |
| World Bank, MPO, October 2026International estimate | 9.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% |
| ADB, ADO, September 2026International estimate | 8.9% | 8.4% | No data |
| ADB, ADO, April 2026International estimate | 8.9% | 8.4% | No data |
| EDB, June 2026International estimate | 10.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% |
| EBRD, September 2026International estimate | 8.7% | 7% | No data |
| Government of Kyrgyzstan, 2026 budgetOfficial statement | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| Finance Ministry, September 2026Official statement | No data | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| IMF, Article IV, June 2026International estimate | 6.1%Needs verification | 5.8%Needs verification | 6.1%Needs verification |
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API
+8
World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026); ADB, Kyrgyz Republic: Economy — Asian Development Outlook September 2026; ADB News: ADB Projects Kyrgyz Republic Growth at 8.9% in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation (10.04.2026, ADO April 2026); Economist.kg о докладе ЕАБР «Макроэкономический прогноз 2026–2028» (17.06.2026); Economist.kg о докладе ЕБРР Regional Economic Prospects (24.09.2026); Минфин КР, Гражданский бюджет Кыргызской Республики на 2026 год (гражданская версия Закона о республиканском бюджете на 2026 год и плановый период 2027–2028 годов); Economist.kg: «Как власти видят экономику КР до 2029 года» (07.09.2026, прогноз Минфина КР); IMF, Kyrgyz Republic: 2026 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/163, 02.07.2026), Table 1
Inflation
Average annual inflation and end-of-year inflation (December on December) are different indicators, so they get different charts.
Average annual inflation
% year on year · 2015–2031
- Actual: average annual inflation (World Bank, WDI)
- IMF, WEO, April 2026
- World Bank, MPO, October 2026
Sources: World Bank WDI API, FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG — «Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)» (lastupdated 2026-07-13); IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API; World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
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End-of-year inflation
% December on December · 2024–2031
- IMF, WEO, April 2026
2 more forecast releases are only in the table below the chart: the chart shows at most three organisations, and government forecasts and values that need verification are not drawn as lines.
Up to 2025 — values from the IMF release (2024 actual, 2025 estimate), then forecast. The end-of-year inflation series from the IMF 2026 Article IV consultation was removed during data checks — see the table below.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API
Show as table
| Who and when | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| IMF, WEO, April 2026Average annual inflationInternational estimate | 10.6% | 10% | 8.9% |
| World Bank, MPO, October 2026Average annual inflationInternational estimate | 12% | 13.5% | 11.4% |
| IMF, WEO, April 2026End-of-year inflationInternational estimate | 10.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| Government of Kyrgyzstan, 2026 budgetEnd-of-year inflationOfficial statement | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% |
| IMF, Article IV, June 2026End-of-year inflationInternational estimate | 12.5%Needs verification | 10.5%Needs verification | 8.5%Needs verification |
| ADB, ADO, September 2026Inflation, definition not stated in the sourceInternational estimate | 11.2% | 8.5% | No data |
| ADB, ADO, April 2026Inflation, definition not stated in the sourceInternational estimate | 10.3% | 8.5% | No data |
| EDB, June 2026Inflation, definition not stated in the sourceInternational estimate | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7% |
| Finance Ministry, September 2026Inflation, definition not stated in the sourceOfficial statement | No data | 7.5% | 6.6% |
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API
+8
World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026); IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API; Минфин КР, Гражданский бюджет Кыргызской Республики на 2026 год (гражданская версия Закона о республиканском бюджете на 2026 год и плановый период 2027–2028 годов); IMF, Kyrgyz Republic: 2026 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/163, 02.07.2026), Table 1; ADB, Kyrgyz Republic: Economy — Asian Development Outlook September 2026; ADB News: ADB Projects Kyrgyz Republic Growth at 8.9% in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation (10.04.2026, ADO April 2026); Economist.kg о докладе ЕАБР «Макроэкономический прогноз 2026–2028» (17.06.2026); Economist.kg: «Как власти видят экономику КР до 2029 года» (07.09.2026, прогноз Минфина КР)
Public debt and budget balance
Coverage differs between organisations: the IMF covers general government, the World Bank uses its own methodology. The series are not merged into one line and are not compared directly with Finance Ministry data.
Public debt, % of GDP
% of GDP · 2023–2031
- IMF, WEO, April 2026
- World Bank, MPO, October 2026
1 more forecast release is only in the table below the chart: the chart shows at most three organisations, and government forecasts and values that need verification are not drawn as lines.
IMF WEO: general government gross debt (GGXWDG). World Bank MPO: public debt by World Bank methodology. Finance Ministry public debt data are in the Economy section.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API; World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
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Budget balance, % of GDP
% of GDP, plus — surplus, minus — deficit · 2023–2031
- IMF, WEO, April 2026
- World Bank, MPO, October 2026
1 more forecast release is only in the table below the chart: the chart shows at most three organisations, and government forecasts and values that need verification are not drawn as lines.
IMF WEO: general government net lending/borrowing. World Bank MPO: budget balance by World Bank methodology.
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026), IMF DataMapper API; World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
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Poverty at the international line
Poverty at $4.20 a day (2021 PPP)
% of population · 2023–2028
- World Bank, MPO, October 2026
Sources: World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
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| Period | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16.4% of population | |
| 2024 | 12.5% of population | |
| 2025 | 11% of population | |
| 2026 | 9.9% of population | Forecast |
| 2027 | 9.2% of population | Forecast |
| 2028 | 8.5% of population | Forecast |
| Source: World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026) | ||
Forecast and outcome
How past forecasts compare with what happened, and how organisations revise their estimates.
GDP growth in 2025: IMF forecast and outcome
- IMF forecast, Article IV (June 2025)6.8%
- Actual, National Statistics Committee11.1%
Outcome minus forecast: +4.3 pp
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 25/176: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2025); Нацстатком КР, табл. 1.01.00.07 «ВВП в текущих ценах»
World Bank forecast for 2026: spring and autumn
- World Bank spring forecast (April 2026)6.1%
- World Bank, MPO (October 2026)9.6%
Revision: +3.5 pp
Sources: Interfax.kz: World Bank GEP/региональный прогноз — 6,1% на 2026 г. (09.04.2026); World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook: Kyrgyz Republic (October 2026)
Other IMF estimates from the 2025 consultation
«converge to about 5¼ percent in the medium term»
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 25/176: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2025)
«Public debt declined to 36.6 percent of GDP in 2024»
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 25/176: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2025)
«Public debt would remain contained under 42 percent of GDP»
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 25/176: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2025)
IMF Article IV 2026: table only
Values need verification
The series come from Table 1 of the IMF staff report (IMF Country Report No. 26/163, web version; checked on 7 October 2026). The report PDF cannot be downloaded, so the series remain flagged “needs verification”: they are shown only in the table and are not used in key figures or charts.
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growthInternational estimate | No data | No data | 11.1%Needs verification | 6.1%Needs verification | 5.8%Needs verification | 6.1%Needs verification | 5.4%Needs verification | 5.3%Needs verification |
| Public debt, % of GDPInternational estimate | 42% of GDPNeeds verification | 36.2% of GDPNeeds verification | 39.4% of GDPNeeds verification | 41.4% of GDPNeeds verification | 40.6% of GDPNeeds verification | 40.5% of GDPNeeds verification | 40.4% of GDPNeeds verification | 40.6% of GDPNeeds verification |
| Budget balance, % of GDPInternational estimate | 1.6% of GDPNeeds verification | 2% of GDPNeeds verification | 2.6% of GDPNeeds verification | −3.8% of GDPNeeds verification | −3.5% of GDPNeeds verification | −3.6% of GDPNeeds verification | −3.1% of GDPNeeds verification | −2.8% of GDPNeeds verification |
| End-of-year inflationInternational estimate | No data | No data | No data | 12.5%Needs verification | 10.5%Needs verification | 8.5%Needs verification | 7.5%Needs verification | No data |
Sources: IMF, Kyrgyz Republic: 2026 Article IV Consultation — Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director (IMF Country Report No. 26/163, 02.07.2026), Table 1
«Output is estimated to have grown by 11 percent in 2025»
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 26/185: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2026)
«Inflation rose to 11 percent in March 2026, well above the central bank's 5–7 percent target range» (12-мес. инфляция)in Russian
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 26/185: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2026)
«After fiscal surpluses in 2023–25, the budget is projected to move into deficit in 2026»
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 26/185: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2026)
«Public debt remains sustainable, but financing needs are sizable» (оценка Совета директоров)in Russian
Sources: IMF Press Release No. 26/185: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Kyrgyz Republic (04.06.2026)