The building-sized object, which could have initially crashed into Earth, is currently moving beyond the reach of telescopes in its orbit around the Sun. However, refined orbital data points to a new potential target: the Moon.

Trajectory Change and Risks

Astronomers used ground-based and space telescopes to determine the size and orbit of 2024 YR4. Thanks to more precise measurements, researchers were able to rule out a direct collision with Earth. Nevertheless, according to NASA data, recent observations in early June have improved the understanding of the object's location in seven years by almost 20%.

Current calculations show that in late 2032, the asteroid may still pose a threat by crashing into Earth's satellite. Such an event could lead to the ejection of fine-grained lunar material.

2024 YR4 Asteroid Statistics

3.1%peak chance of collision with Earth in February
2032year of possible impact
20%improvement in location data accuracy

Context

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in late 2024. In February, it was considered the riskiest of all observed objects due to the high probability of a collision with the planet.