According to a new Copernicus report published on November 6, there is a high probability that 2026 will rank second in temperature indicators in history. At the same time, scientists do not rule out a scenario in which this year could break the temperature record of 2024.
Temperature Indicators and Risks
The study indicates that global air temperatures continue to steadily exceed pre-industrial levels. In particular, October 2026 has already been recorded as the hottest October in history. The average global temperature during this period was 15.35 degrees Celsius, which is 1.75 degrees higher than the 1850–1900 levels.
Climate Service Forecasts
According to specialist forecasts, the average temperature for the entire year of 2026 could be 1.56–1.61 degrees higher than the pre-industrial level. Temperature increases are also influenced by El Niño—a natural phenomenon characterized by rising water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Impact on Oceans and Regions
In addition to the atmosphere, abnormally high temperatures are also observed in the World Ocean. In October, the average sea surface temperature outside the polar regions reached a record 20.95 degrees.
Climate changes are already affecting geography: in Europe, heat and drought have caused major rivers such as the Rhine, Danube, and Vistula to recede.
Context
Copernicus is a European climate service dedicated to monitoring climate change. The pre-industrial period used for comparison covers the years 1850–1900.
